Predictions for the upcoming Bitcoin halving are still pouring it, with most of them bullish on Bitcoin’s chance of a parabolic rise.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving expected next year is already creating quite a bit of buzz as the market anticipates a reduction in Bitcoin block rewards. With a little over six months left till the halving, analysts are now offering predictions about Bitcoin’s chances.
While the specific count might not be the same across analysts, Rekt Capital posted on X that the halving is 189 days from Monday. Rekt Capital has offered an analysis of Bitcoin’s price behavior during the 189 days before the second halving in July 2016.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin fell 25% about 189 days before the second halving, in a re-accumulated range that lasted until two months pre-halving. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin is trading at $27,522. A similar plunge, as seen during the 2015 re-accumulation phase, could see the king coin plunge well below $22,000.
After this ended, Rekt Capital notes that Bitcoin then began its pre-halving rally and hit $776 at the time. Unfortunately, the analyst stated a pre-halving trace of 40%, which led to a post-halving re-accumulation period that put Bitcoin in the $566 – $776 range. Rekt Capital then noted that this re-accumulation phase lasted 6 months until December 2016 when a parabolic uptrend began.
Bitcoin Halving Predictions
As part of the buzz, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao made a post including careful predictions about Bitcoin halving based on past events. Zhao stated that there will be a lot more news, chatter, hype, anxiety, and expectations in the few months leading up to the halving. Furthermore, CZ said that Bitcoin’s price will not double immediately after the halving and predicts people will wonder why. He then added:
“The year after the halving, Bitcoin price hits multiple ATH (all time highs). And people ask why. People have short memories.”
The Binance boss however added a disclaimer that there is no proven causation and that history does not predict the future. Previous halvings have seen Bitcoin’s price become bullish months after the halving. Following this logic, a parabolic bull market may not come until 2025.
Another analyst known as Bluntz believes that the Bitcoin cycle has already bottomed. However, Bluntz said another dip is possible.
“We are in the 2019-2020 part of the cycle where we can still easily come down to $19-20k and put in a higher low and continue higher throughout 2024,” stated he.
Bullish on Bitcoin
There have been a few other bullish pre- and post-halving predictions. For instance, three Pantera Capital execs noted in a Blockchain Letter that Bitcoin would likely spike before and after the event. Pantera Capital pointed out that each halving will now significantly affect the Bitcoin market since most Bitcoins are already in circulation. The execs then predicted that Bitcoin would hit $35,000 before the halving and pump to $148,000 sometime after. Bitcoin’s current circulating supply is over 19.5 million, about 93% of Bitcoin’s total possible supply.
The next halving event will reduce mining rewards from 6.25 per block to 3.125. Halving events happen every four years or after every 210,000 blocks.
Tolu is a cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiast based in Lagos. He likes to demystify crypto stories to the bare basics so that anyone anywhere can understand without too much background knowledge.
When he’s not neck-deep in crypto stories, Tolu enjoys music, loves to sing and is an avid movie lover.